Can We Judge a Society or a People Based on Calamities That Befall Them, Even When We Know Their History and What They Have Done?

I would like to ask a real question using Israel and Iran as examples.

Looking at their histories, we know that oppression and injustices have taken place. Therefore, can we say that the events happening to them today are a punishment from Allah for their past actions?

There is also the following hadith:

"Whoever harms others, Allah will harm him; and whoever causes hardship to others, Allah will cause hardship to him."

(Could you also verify whether this hadith is authentic?)

If Islam teaches that we should not make definitive judgments about specific events, what is the reason for that? How can we know whether an event is a test or a punishment?

Furthermore, can we say that people deserve what is happening to them today because of their past actions?

Finally, in Surah Al-Isra (17:2–4), there seems to be a clear pattern: arrogance and oppression lead to consequences. In that case, would it be correct to summarize the matter as follows:

"Arrogance and oppression inevitably lead to downfall."

Dear Brother / Sister,

Two matters must be distinguished in this issue:

First, the general principle established by the Qur'an and Sunnah; and second, making a definitive judgment about a specific event.

According to the general principle set forth in the Qur'an, oppression, arrogance, injustice, and corruption are among the causes of the downfall of societies. Indeed, in Surah Al-Isra, it is stated that the Children of Israel would cause great corruption on earth twice and would consequently face severe consequences. From this perspective, it is correct to say that "Arrogance and oppression eventually lead to harmful consequences." In fact, this is one of Allah's unchanging laws governing societies (Sunnatullah).

However, based on this principle, it is not correct to say regarding a particular war, disaster, or calamity: "This is definitely Allah's punishment for such-and-such sins." We cannot know the true reality of an event before Allah without revelation. The same event may be a punishment for some, a test for others, a warning for others, and a means of spiritual elevation for yet others.

Regarding the hadith mentioned in the question:

"Whoever harms a Muslim, Allah will harm him; and whoever causes hardship to a Muslim, Allah will cause hardship to him."

This hadith has been regarded as authentic (sahih) or sound (hasan) by hadith scholars. (Abu Dawud, Aqdiyah, 31)

This hadith also expresses the general principle that oppression and wrongdoing do not go unanswered. However, it is not possible to determine with certainty the cause of every calamity based on this principle alone.

As for the issue of the sins of one's ancestors, the fundamental principle of Islam is:

"No bearer of burdens shall bear the burden of another." (Al-Isra 17:15)

Therefore, a person is not held accountable merely because of crimes committed by his father, grandfather, or nation in the past. However, those who approve of their ancestors' oppression, defend it, continue the same path, and support those injustices become partners in those sins through their own choices. For this reason, generations that embrace the crimes of their forefathers may also share in the consequences of those wrongs.

On the other hand, those who regard the actions of their fathers or grandfathers as wrong, who do not support oppression and reject injustice, are not responsible for those sins either in this world or in the Hereafter. Allah's justice requires this.

Therefore, the most balanced statement that can be made regarding Israel, Iran, or any other society is this:

Oppression, arrogance, and injustice are among the causes that lead societies toward destruction. If a society engaged in such actions in the past or continues to do so today, it may face negative consequences as a result. However, we cannot say with certainty whether a particular event is a divine punishment or a test. Nor can we place the innocent, the oppressed, and those who oppose injustice within that society under the same judgment.

The proper balance, therefore, is this: We accept as a general principle that oppression leads to harmful consequences, but we do not — and cannot — make definitive judgments on behalf of Allah regarding specific calamities. People are judged not by the crimes of their ancestors, but by their own attitudes and choices concerning those crimes.

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