What kind of time problem is there in evolution in terms calculations of probability in genetic changes?

The Answer

Dear Brother / Sister,

10.4.3- The problem of time in evolution in terms of the calculation of probabilities in genetic changes

Since the possibility of one species transforming into another species requires a tremendous change, evolutionists argue that this change did not occur suddenly, but as a result of mutations over long periods of time like millions of years. In fact, at first glance, it is not far from the imagination that such a change may take place over such a long period of time. However, this possibility is only an imaginary possibility because such a possibility must have a genetic basis to be a reasonable and real possibility. It is claimed that this change occurred as a result of mutations in genes. However, when calculations of probability are made with genetic methods, it is seen that the life of the universe, let alone the life of the world, will not be enough for such a possibility. It is impossible to convert one species into another with mutation even if such advanced technology and accumulated experience are used.

For example, it is impossible for a chimpanzee, which is genetically closest to a human being, to turn into a human being with mutations because there is a 96% similarity at best and 4% difference.1

There is a total of three and a half billion genetic letters (nucleotides) in its genes.2

That is, there is a difference of 3.5000.000.000 x 4/100=140.000.000 nucleotides (genes) between two species. In other words, if an engineer who is an expert in genetics wants to do it, he must replace 140 million letters carefully. However, if this work is to be expected from blind and purposeless tools, such as nature and coincidence that have no engineering ability, the possibility of closing the difference by random mutations is  1/4140.000.000 based on the probability of the 4 different genetic letters in the DNA chain (Adenine, Guanine, Cytosine and Thymine) being in 140 million different positions.

The chance of success of this mutation when we turn it into decimal figures for easier understanding is 1/1084.000.000. That is, you need to put 84 million zeroes next to 10; what number would you get? That is the number of possibilities. Let us also calculate this possibility in terms of time, to which evolutionists often resort. According to the claim of the evolutionist view, this transformation took place in 100 million years as a result of mutations. Well, if it happened in a hundred million years, how many mutations would have to occur in one year? Let us calculate it.

1084.000.000.000 /100.000.000 years = 1084.000.000.000/1*108 = 1084.000.000.000-8

That is, you have to put 83 million 999 thousand 992 zeros next to 1. That is the possibility: 1/100000000............ (83 million 999 thousand 992 zeros will have to be added next to 1). It is also possible to understand it as follows: More than 1083999992 DNAs will form by chance in a year; and only one of them can be the DNA of today’s man.Look! I do not say 83 million 999 thousand 992, I say 1083999992. This detail is very important because even only the last two digits, that is, 92 becomes a huge number that we cannot name when it becomes an exponent of 10. It would be impossible even if it was a probability of 1092, let alone 1 in a quintillion or centillion. 

Therefore, since 100 million years = 108, time has no effect on this possibility. If the life of the world was 100 billion years, it would be equal to 1011, which would be of no effect again. It must be acknowledged that the world must have almost an eternal life for such a possibility to be realized,. This cannot be accepted by anyone because it is a claim against reason, science and mathematics.

In fact, millions of years does not weaken such a low possibility. Even if they say billions of years, only 10 zeros will be reduced from 84 million zeros since there are 10 zeros in a billion. How much will a million be reduced if ten or a hundred is subtracted from it? Moreover, such mutations should occur regularly every year.

In mathematics, 1040 means impossible.

Why should we judge that so many mutations in the past occurred in one year while the total number of mutations in a cell in a year is so few?

Can a person who says such an impossible probability is possible be regarded as a sane person?

1.DNA sequence and comparative analysis of chimpanzee chromosome 22, Nature. (2004). doi:10.1038/nature02564;      M. Somel, H. Creely, H. Franz, U. Mueller, M. Lachmann, S. Khaitovich, S. Pääbo, Human and chimpanzee gene expression differences replicated in mice fed different diets, PLoS One. (2008). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0001504;       S. Gagneux, A. Varki, Genetic differences between humans and great apes, Mol. Phylogenet. Evol. (2001). doi:10.1006/mpev.2000.0799.
2.M.M. DeAngelis, M. a. Batzer, Genome Sequence Analysis, Encycl. Life Sci. (2001). doi:10.1038/npg.els.0003028.

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